Thursday, November 8, 2012

22,273


There is a dearth of information on Ted Yoho that I find remarkable, given that it is 2012.  I am not suggesting that he’s a born-in-Kenya sleeper agent set out to destroy Congress – quite the opposite, the fact that he won 22,273 voters in a GOP primary without much help from local media says a lot about

a)      The erosion of our media’s coverage of local politics.
b)      Yoho’s ability to connect with voters during the pound-the-pavement portion of the long primary season.
c)      The eagerness of GOP voters to look beyond a “Washington insider”, as Yoho was successfully able to label Cliff Stearns.

But the most important part of all that, did you miss it, was this number.  22,273.  It’s the reason I started this project.  Because Yoho faced no pitched opposition in the general election, we now have a Representative who was selected, effectively, by 1/14th of the participating voters in the district.  Here are the final vote totalsfor the 2012 Yoho / Gaillot race:  


I don’t think it’s sour grapes to suggest that this is anomalous, though I am sure that if you looked through the whole portfolio of 435 US House Reps, you’re going to find more than a few that got their start in the same out-of-the-blue fashion.  But 22,273 is a pretty low number of constituents to be beholden to.

Yes, it was a divided field.  A four-way race in a new district where a good number of voters were unfamiliar with all four candidates.  But I think a close reading of the numbers of both the GOP primary and the main election, as well as a fair understanding of the different appeal of Cliff Stearns, Steve Oelrich and Jimmy Jett would show that a good number of the voters in FL-03, even the GOP voters, are going to be pretty unhappy with a self-professed Tea Partier representing them in Washington.

What I’m doing here is hinting at larger pieces I want to break out and write about in depth later.  Understanding the 2012 GOP primary is a critical part of the story, undoubtedly.  That’s the next installment.  For now, here’s a garish but functional recap if you want to look at the data for yourself… 

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